Depending on where you sit, the same flood of AI-authored diffs reads like acceleration or entropy. Power users of Claude/GPT/Gemini-class tools report dramatic speedups in boilerplate, refactors, tests, and exploratory builds—and a real erosion of demand for “pure glue” roles—while reviewers on r/ExperiencedDevs describe “vibe coding” PRs that chase edge cases “that will never happen,” spawn fresh abstractions, and drift off architecture. Contractors asking an LLM to re-stack a working script because “that’s what the model suggests” isn’t modernization; it’s churn dressed as progress. Meanwhile, some managers still celebrate lines shipped and AI invocations, even as practitioners push for SDLC metrics—review time, defect and rollback rates, incident resolution, dependency complexity—that actually reflect quality. Here’s the provocation: if your process can’t stop an over‐threshold “vibe” PR, the problem isn’t the model; it’s your governance. Credible caveats persist: “some report early evidence” that tightly scoped green/yellow/red practices reduce total review load, but the split remains—AI isn’t good at deep domain comprehension, cross‐org coordination, or architecture under constraints, even as it excels at turning clear specs into code. And the community’s open question lingers: is the confident “software development will be fine for decades” still defensible?
The counterintuitive takeaway is that the path to productive AI coding runs through stricter constraints, not looser ones. The decisive progress isn’t better code generation; it’s teams acting like evaluators—classifying AI involvement, naming failure modes, zoning work, capping PR size, and treating tests as the non‐negotiable contract—so reviews shift from nits to invariants and, in the right setup, total review load drops. That reframes senior roles: less lone fixer, more system designer for human+AI teams who defines boundaries, curates patterns, codifies architecture, and decides what constitutes misuse, even as mid‐level output on rote work approaches past senior velocity. The next moves to watch aren’t model upgrades but policy ones: directory‐level AI rules, transparent PR attestation, and SDLC‐level metrics replacing vanity dashboards. In the end, the future of AI coding is less about what the model can write and more about what your team refuses to merge.