Microsoft 2025 AI Diffusion Report: 1.2 Billion Users, 4 Billion Left Behind

• Global AI tool users — 1.2 billion people (Nov 5, 2025; worldwide)
• Population lacking conditions to access AI — 4.0 billion people, 47% (Nov 5, 2025; worldwide)

• Global AI infrastructure divide: Nearly 47% of the world—about 4 billion people—lack stable internet, reliable electricity, or digital skills, amplifying inequality and excluding vast populations from education, healthcare, finance, and jobs as AI adoption hits 1.2 billion users (Nov 5, 2025). Opportunity: Accelerate broadband, grid stability, and digital literacy investments; beneficiaries include governments, multilateral donors, telcos, and infrastructure providers.

• Reputational and regulatory blowback for AI providers: As services scale, firms risk scrutiny for entrenching inequities and face rising pressure for localized models and culturally relevant content, increasing compliance and operational burdens. Opportunity: Proactive inclusion (affordability, offline/low-bandwidth modes), local partnerships, and content localization can win trust and regulatory goodwill; beneficiaries are early-moving AI vendors and ecosystem partners.

• Known unknown — Pace of inclusion and norm-setting: Global transformation hinges on how quickly lower-resource regions are brought into the AI fold, which will shape market size and who defines ethical, social, and regulatory norms. Opportunity: Co-develop pilots tying infrastructure and skills programs to policymaking; beneficiaries are nations and multilateral coalitions that lead standard-setting and companies aligning early.

Period | Milestone | Impact --- | --- | --- Q4 2025 (TBD) | Governments, multilaterals announce broadband and power-grid investments for underserved regions. | Begin closing AI access gap for ~4 billion lacking connectivity, electricity, skills. Q4 2025 (TBD) | Tech firms unveil localized AI models and culturally relevant content deployments. | Expand adoption beyond 1.2 billion, improve inclusion in lower-resource markets. Q4 2025 (TBD) | Regulators initiate equity-focused AI guidance, inquiries, or reporting requirements. | Increase compliance pressure; reduce reputational risk from global AI inequities. Q1 2026 (TBD) | Public–private digital literacy programs launched at scale across priority regions. | Enable AI-based education, healthcare, finance access; strengthen workforce competitiveness.

There are two stories in this report. Supporters see a historic surge—1.2 billion people using AI—while skeptics point to the louder number: roughly 4 billion who can’t access it at all. Short-term, the curve looks triumphant; long-term, the report warns of amplified inequality, blocked “digital citizenship,” and concentrated gains where infrastructure already exists. Idealists call AI a global equalizer; pragmatists note the urgent, feasible fixes—broadband, stable power, digital literacy—that determine who gets to participate. Here’s the provocation the numbers dare us to face: a technology that reaches a billion while bypassing four is not progress—it’s policy failure in motion. Yes, there are credible counters: nations that invest now may reap outsized returns, organizations in improving infrastructure zones can gain first-mover advantages, and companies are being pushed toward localized models and culturally relevant content. But the outcome remains uncertain—and the report flags the hinge: everything depends on how quickly and effectively lower-resource regions are brought into the fold.

The surprising takeaway is that the vanguard of AI isn’t the next breakthrough model—it’s the next mile of cable and the next hour of digital training. The report’s facts point to a counterintuitive power shift: those who expand access, not just capability, will shape economic gains and the ethical, social, and regulatory norms that follow. Watch where broadband and power grids get funded, where digital literacy programs scale, and where private providers meet pressure for local relevance; education, healthcare, and governance will feel the first shocks where access improves. What changes next isn’t the promise of AI—it’s who can claim it. The future of AI will be written where the cables finally reach.